Managing squall risk when planning an overnight passage

A favorable wind angle does not automatically mean the conditions are safe for an overnight sail. Lauren is weighing a 100-mile overnight passage to get upwind in the Tuamotus and notes there is a chance of a squall moving through that same night. The wind is forecast at 12 to 18 knots but there have just been sustained gusts of 20, 25, and 30 knots, so the sea state is still rough at departure. Her calculation is that about halfway into the passage the boat will be more sheltered, and she decides the favorable angle is worth going despite the uncertainty. The takeaway is that overnight passage planning always involves balancing the opportunity window against the weather risk, and sometimes you accept an uncomfortable first half in order to make progress while the angle is there.